Live, rolling coverage of business, economics and financial markets as Marine Le Pen’s National Rally set to be largest party in first round of France parliamentary election

UK mortgage approvals dipped slightly in May, but were right in line with expectations, according to new data from the Bank of England.

Net mortgage approvals for house purchases fell from 60,800 in April to 60,000 in May, while approvals for remortgaging decreased slightly from 29,900 to 29,600 over the same period, the Bank said.

Gridlock: The most likely outcome remains a hung parliament in which neither the far right nor the united left nor the Macron’s centrists can muster a majority. In this case, any (new) government would not get much done.

Worse than gridlock: Although the united left and RN are polar opposites on issues of migration, culture and identity, they have all opposed Macron’s pro-growth reforms. As a result, we see a risk that Le Pen’s party and parts of the left may still join forces in a hung parliament on a few select issues to soften Macron’s pension reform and enhance the “purchasing power” of citizens, for instance through lower VAT on energy products or via additional subsidies.

Marine Meloni: With a significantly lower probability than the first two scenarios, Le Pen’s party may still win a majority of seats and install RN boss Jordan Bardella as prime minister. If so, she would probably focus on winning the 2027 presidential election, staying on the more moderate track which she has signalled during the campaign. She may concentrate on some signature policies (e.g. being tough on immigration) rather than on expensive or disruptive fiscal promises. Put differently, Le Pen may try to largely follow the example of Italy’s prime minister Giorgia Meloni. To do so, she may possibly explain to RN voters after a lengthy fiscal review that most of her original fiscal ideas could only be implemented slowly over time – or only if she became president in 2027.