The race in rural Louth and Horncastle, a previously unassailable Tory seat, encapsulates Reform’s real threat

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As the traders pack up under the striped awnings of the market stalls in the centre of Alford, east Lincolnshire, Matthew Warner is loading balls of wool from his family shop into the back of his car.

Warner, a father of two, is feeling a serious strain on the family finances from fuel prices and childcare, and his wife cannot work full-time hours as a nurse because of the costs. A longtime Tory voter, the 33-year-old is still undecided on who he will vote for on Thursday, but he says he is now attracted by Nigel Farage’s Reform party, who are making significant inroads in seats like this.

In the Lincolnshire constituency of Grantham, a statue of the Iron Lady reflects a sense of loyalty that is now wavering

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There were hints of a sunny afternoon in Grantham on Monday when the skies kept clouding over, producing on-off moments of drizzle. But if the weather was undecided, that was nothing compared to the voters, with less than two days left until the general election.

“We watched the debates but we still don’t know,” said John Lyon, a retired bricklayer going to the bank with his wife, Jane, a retired chef.