The affluent constituency is home to Mayfair clubs, Soho theatres and City types – one of whom told me: ‘We need to pay more tax’

A red glow spreading across the land may be so bright you could see it from space, if polling predictions are right. In that Labour flare, let’s pinpoint one astonishing constituency the party looks likely to win for the first time in history. Conservative for ever, the City itself, part of the Cities of London and Westminster constituency, would be turning red. Look at the symbolism.

The king in Buckingham Palace would have a Labour MP for the first time. So would the Palace of Westminster, the supreme court, the Old Bailey, Scotland Yard, Westminster Abbey, St Paul’s Cathedral, Catholic Westminster Cathedral and Methodist Central Hall.

Polly Toynbee is a Guardian columnist

Enlarge (credit: setthaphat dodchai via Getty)

Last December, a joint survey by The Economist and the polling organization YouGov claimed to reveal a striking antisemitic streak among America’s youth. One in five young Americans thinks the Holocaust is a myth, according to the poll. And 28 percent think Jews in America have too much power.

“Our new poll makes alarming reading,” declared The Economist. The results inflamed discourse over the Israel-Hamas war on social media and made international news.

There was one problem: The survey was almost certainly wrong. The Economist/YouGov poll was a so-called opt-in poll, in which pollsters often pay people they've recruited online to take surveys. According to a recent analysis from the nonprofit Pew Research Center, such polls are plagued by “bogus respondents” who answer questions disingenuously for fun, or to get through the survey as quickly as possible to earn their reward.

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PM again declines to say whether he told Craig Williams in advance about his decision to hold the election in July

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Rishi Sunak is returning to the campaign trail on Thursday, PA reports, after a two-day hiatus for the Emperor and Empress of Japan’s state visit and preparations for the final head-to-head debate with Sir Keir Starmer.

With one week to go until polling day, the deepening gambling scandal is still likely to feature heavily when he faces the media during a tour of the East Midlands and Yorkshire.

He is expected to visit a factory in Derbyshire and hold an evening campaign event in Leeds.

Keir Starmer accused Rishi Sunak of using transgender issues “as a political football to divide people” during their head-to-head debate on Wednesday.

Adrian Carter is using polling to help him vote tactically. Plus a letter from Keith Flett

In an otherwise thoughtful article, John Harris neglects one important virtue of pre-election polls (I’ve seen all the ‘landslide’ polls – but they can’t tell us what’s really going on in this election, 23 June). I have spent most of my adult life in constituencies where, in retrospect, voting for the government I wanted would have been best served by voting locally for another party. I do not need help in deciding which issues are important to me or which government is more likely to deliver the outcomes I want, but I do need help in deciding where my vote would best be placed to secure the national outcome I favour. Well-structured polls are a help with this.

To give an example, it is clear from an overview of the six MRP polls I have examined that the party I’m inclined to favour has little chance of winning in my constituency. But if I want to rid myself of the worst government in my lifetime, armed with MRP data, the logical thing for me to do is to vote not for my favoured party but for a third party that has a chance of beating the Conservatives in this seat. I shall know on 5 July whether I have made the right choice, but my chance of doing so is much enhanced by the existence of constituency-level polls.
Adrian Carter
Penselwood, Somerset